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Sudan's civil war has reached a critical turning point, as the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) announced a parallel government that directly challenges the authority of the army-led administration. The conflict, which began in April 2023 after tensions over integrating the RSF into the regular army, has now deepened into political bifurcation.
The RSF's announcement of a presidential council, with its leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo at the helm, follows months of military standoffs and territorial disputes. Though the international community has yet to recognize this new government, its establishment risks further fragmentation of Sudan, echoing the secession of South Sudan in 2011.
While the army retains control of the northeast(including Port Sudan and parts of Khartoum) the RSF dominates much of Darfur, including Nyala, and key stretches of the Kordofan region. Both factions claim legitimacy, but analysts warn the result may resemble Libya's prolonged stalemate: two governments, neither fully functional.
The RSF's coalition, formed under a new constitution, aims to unite rebel groups and civilian factions disillusioned with the army. However, Nyala has already seen an uptick in violence, kidnappings, and protest—suggesting instability may accompany RSF rule.
The army, meanwhile, is attempting to rebuild its image with a "Hope Government" led by Prime Minister Kamil Idris, but internal divisions and links to former dictator Omar al-Bashir's party hinder progress. Both leaders—Dagalo and army chief Burhan—remain under U.S. sanctions.
No international actors have formally backed the RSF's claim, and both factions struggle with economic collapse, internal displacement, and a fractured civilian trust. As Sudan teeters on the edge of de facto division, the dream of a unified, peaceful future grows ever more fragile. The country faces not just a power struggle, but an existential one.
