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Germany's long-standing diplomatic alignment with Israel is undergoing a visible recalibration. In the most critical remarks to date, Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul have signaled a potential shift in Berlin's policy—driven by the deteriorating humanitarian situation in Gaza and a wave of public discontent at home.
 

The backdrop is grim. As airstrikes continue to pound northern Gaza, hunger and desperation are reaching unprecedented levels. A U.N.-backed food security assessment warns of looming famine among the enclave's two million residents. In this context, Germany's foreign minister told WDR radio, "We are at a point where further steps must be considered seriously." While he stopped short of detailing those measures, he clarified that Berlin would not authorize weapons exports that risk violating humanitarian law.

Chancellor Merz, speaking during a visit to Finland, expressed growing unease over Israel's military campaign. "The airstrikes no longer seem to serve a definable military objective," he said, adding that recent actions were "no longer comprehensible." His words mark a stark departure from his earlier pledge to welcome Prime Minister Netanyahu to Berlin, even amid an ICC arrest warrant.

Germany has long cited its historic responsibility to Israel, rooted in the legacy of the Holocaust. Yet even within this moral framework, officials now stress that support cannot be unconditional. "Our fight against antisemitism and our commitment to Israel's security must not be misused to justify the ongoing warfare," Wadephul said. He is set to raise these concerns directly with Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar.

This diplomatic shift reflects deeper currents within German society. According to a Civey poll published by Tagesspiegel, 51% of Germans now oppose arms shipments to Israel. A separate study by the Bertelsmann Foundation shows only 36% hold a positive view of Israel—down ten points from 2021. Perhaps more tellingly, just one in four Germans still believe their country holds a special obligation toward Israel, compared to 64% of Israelis who think otherwise.

Within Germany's political landscape, pressure is mounting. Members of the ruling coalition's junior partner have openly advocated for halting military exports, warning of legal and ethical consequences.

While international scrutiny — on the issue is on the rise — Germany's reassessment joins a broader European reevaluation of ties with Israel. Chancellor Merz has yet to commit to policy changes, and the shift in tone is undeniable. In the words of Israeli Ambassador Ron Prosor, "When Friedrich Merz voices criticism, we listen—because he is a friend." That friendship, it appears, is now being tested by the mounting cost of war.  

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